JUDE FELD’S KENTUCKY DERBY DAY STAKES ANALYSIS
May 2nd, 2014
CHURCHILL DOWNS RACE 6 – THE CHURCHILL DISTAFF TURF MILE (G2)
A “horse for course†play, #3 MIZ IDA has two wins and two second-place finishes in six starts in Louisville. She runs well fresh and has been training very well of late. Her trainer, Steve Margolis, wins a solid 19% of the time with his layoff runners. #5 ABSOLUTE CRACKERS has developed nicely for top trainer H. Graham Motion. He employs his recent “go-to†rider in Alan Garcia in search of some black type for this well-bred mare. #9 CENTRE COURT is undefeated over the course. She is back in good form, but her odds will be very low and this is a tough, evenly matched field.
CHURCHILL DOWNS RACE 7 – THE HUMANA DISTAFF (G1)
#3 JUDY THE BEAUTY is the best female sprinter in the nation. She comes off back-to-back graded stakes victories by open lengths and will be the deserved favorite here. #8 MIDNIGHT LUCKY is a filly of much talent. She has been working like a bomb for Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert. Her lone defeat came at Churchill Downs in the Kentucky Oaks last year, but that race may have been too far for her. #2 HEART STEALER always gives her best. Her trainer, Marty Wolfson, is one of the sharpest in the business. He didn’t come to Louisville for a mint julep. Jockey Joel Rosario enhances her chances.
CHURCHILL DOWNS RACE 8 – THE AMERICAN TURF (G2)
There is no doubt, #8 STORMING INTI is best on the turf. He has excellent tactical speed and this course can be very kind to front runners. He should get an excellent trip and jockey Javier Castellano fits him like a glove. #11 WOODFIELD SPRINGS is an up-and-coming grass star. The son of Breeders’ Cup Classic winner Raven’s Pass drew a lousy post, but his jockey Julien Leparoux excels on the turf. They should be in the frame somewhere. #5 GLOBAL VIEW flopped in his last start when the Transylvania (G3) was taken off the grass. He’s been working sharply for this race and we can expect him to run his best.
CHURCHILL DOWNS RACE 9 – THE CHURCHILL DOWNS STAKES (G2)
This is the toughest race on the card next to the Kentucky Derby (G1). It’s hard to believe, but there isn’t much early speed entered here. On paper, #10 DELAUNAY looks like he could make an easy lead and that’s something you don’t want to give jockey Rosie Napravnik. He’s won six of 11 starts at seven furlongs and seems well-spotted by trainer Tom Amoss. #4 SAHARA SKY is another middle distance specialist. He does his best running for jockey Joel Rosario and his trainer, Hall of Famer Jerry Hollendorfer has had a spectacular year so far. Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert has made a career of shipping horses with California speed back East to win major races. #11 SHAKIN IT UP has two bullet works in his holster and drew the cozy outside post. He should be in the mix.
CHURCHILL DOWNS RACE 10 – THE WOODFORD RESERVE TURF CLASSIC (G1)
Two-time Horse of the Year, #1 WISE DAN, won last year’s edition of this race by open lengths. He is undefeated at Churchill Downs – a perfect three-for-three – and looks to add to his legend today. If you want to be a “wise guy†and try to beat the champ, #10 SEEK AGAIN might be the play. The son of Speightstown won his only American start, the Hollywood Derby (G1), so he has the quality to perform well “when the whole world is watching.†That was a quote from Hall of Fame trainer D. Wayne Lukas. He saddles #9 SKYRING, a horse that often upsets good fields on big race days. He could steal it if left alone on the front end.
CHURCHILL DOWNS RACE 11 – THE KENTUCKY DERBY (G1) PRESENTED BY YUM! BRANDS
The Holy Bull (G2) at Gulfstream Park has proven to be the “key race†of this year’s Kentucky Derby (G1) trail. #16 INTENSE HOLIDAY and #20 WICKED STRONG both ran in that race and came back to win major Derby prep races. The former has trained superbly over the track and seems to be improving even more entering this race. It is very significant that trainer Todd Pletcher chose Hall of Fame jockey John Velazquez, his “go-to†rider for many years, to pilot this colt. The latter drew a tough post, but his run in the Wood Memorial (G1) at Aqueduct was nothing short of spectacular. The mile and a quarter is right up his alley and he has been carefully prepared by excellent trainer James Jerkens. #4 DANZA made everyone take notice when he won the Arkansas Derby (G1) at 41-1. It was his first race around two turns and he won with aplomb. He lacks seasoning, but he might just show everyone “who’s the boss†this afternoon. #5 CALIFORNIA CHROME has kicked ass in his home state. His 77-year-old trainer Art Sherman is the kind of man you would like to see win the Derby after a long and distinguished career. He brings a very good colt to Louisville. Longshots for your trifectas and supers and other exotic wagers include: #17 COMMANDING CURVE, who snuck in the Derby at the last minute in typical Dallas Stewart fashion, #14 MEDAL COUNT, trained by the cagey and talented Dale Romans, #19 RIDE ON CURLIN, ridden by Mr. Derby, Calvin Borel and #1 VICAR’S IN TROUBLE who drew a bad post, but shouldn’t be 30-1 on the morning line with Rosie Napravnik in the saddle.
